AFSCME 3357-HOF'S BLOG

Ken Jennings breaks Jeopardy Record - How good is Ken? How far will he go?

Ken Jennings broke the Jeopardy all-time earnings record last night in a contest that wasn't even a contest. His total now is $1,164,660 after 35 wins.

In the web page linked below, statistician Andy Saunders lays down Ken's numbers.

Over 92% of all questions answered correctly.
He buzzes in first almost 60% of the time.
The last opponent who could have theoretically one in Final Jeopardy was June 29. Ken has gotten better since then. Ken has never trailed going into Final Jeopardy where he answers correctly 67% of the time.

How far can ken go? Well, let's assume that 5% of the time an opponent can be expected to Have a shot at Ken going into Final Jeopardy. Let's also recognize that only 7 out of 70 players have gotten a Final Jeopardy question right when Ken got it wrong. Now multiply that probability .05 x .1, that gives him a probability of .005 or half of one percent of losing on any given day. Unless I'm making a mistake in my math here in my coffee break analysis, it appears that it is more probable than not that Ken will reach 100 wins and $3,000,000.

There are two kinds of people that could beat Ken. The first is a superior being who could run up the victories even more than Ken. The second is a lucky soul who just happens to get suitable categories and who maybe runs into Ken on an "off day".

Ken's foil will probably be somebody a lot like him, a former College Bowl wonk who has studied the game and studied up on the likely questions. If the only people who have a shot at sitting in the champion's chair have these characteristics, the long-term popularity of the show will probably go down. At some point, it makes sense for the good of the game to cut a deal with Ken & let him retire as undefeated champion. Then change the rules back to 5 wins & out.


TVgameshows.net: Jennings' Winnings