AFSCME 3357-HOF'S BLOG

At Whom is the Strike Deadline Aimed?

All weekend, the news stories indicated that the UAW and GM were close to an agreement. Just in time for the Monday morning media, the UAW announced an 11:00 AM strike deadline. If the parties are close to an agreement, it seems to me that a strike would be more effective in selling the agreement to the UAW rank and file than it would be to sell it to GM. Here's my reasoning: Assuming that GM was close to accepting the UAW's terms anyway, GM can end a strike with just a little nudge. A short strike would not cost GM much. They have high inventories in most models. So high that incentives were just increased.

On the other hand, with concessions that have already been foreshadowed, the UAW can expect substantial resistance from the rank and file. It would help the odds of acceptance to remind the members how bad strike pay is, and how stressful strikes can be. Also, the UAW negotiators can show that they got that "last dollar" out of GM by demonstrating that it took a strike (or an imminent strike) to get a deal.

When a tentative deal is finally reached, it will be interesting to see how long the union gives the members to examine the deal before a ratification vote. You just know that this deal will be a bad mothe . . . (shut your mouth). It's a complicated deal, and no one understands it but its mother. In a rational market, the union would give the members time to examine the deal and debate its merits, a level of scrutiny that is warranted by the effect that the deal will have on the members' future. Of course, that's not going to happen, I bet that the members will be forced to vote on the deal with very little chance to examine the details. If the members are on strike, they will have even more pressure to take a deal laid on the table.

The bottom line: if there is a strike, don't panic. It's likely to be a "show" strike designed to coerce the members into accepting a contract. If it is anything else, it means that there wasn't a deal to be made, and we were probably screwed anyway.