My Predictions for the UAW Contract

 The UAW's bargaining with the Detroit 3 is in high gear right now. There are news stories saying that the UAW will be pressured to take no wage increase and others saying the UAW is going for a 10% signing bonus. I have some educated guesses on the outcome. This is an unusual environment right now. All three automakers are currently profitable, but the economy as a whole is sick with unemployment over 9%. This means that If the uses its strongest card, the strike, it is likely to face a significant backlash from the public for being greedy in a time of unemployment. On the other hand, the UAW has to justify its existence by using the collective bargaining process to obtain a tangible benefit. Added to the difficulties, the UAW has three diverse constituencies which have divergent objectives. First are the mainstream long term workers. They have seen their real earnings decline since the past contract due to give backs. Many of them have gone through transfers and relocations. They want to recover some or all of their lost purchasing power. The second group are the "Tier 2" workers. They only make about half of what the mainstream workers make. The Tier 2 workers cannot support families on their earnings, and they resent making half the wage of the people with whom they work side by side. Finally, there are the retirees. They don't have voting rights, but in the ballot, they are represented by the large number of soon-to-retire workers who share their stake in the outcome of the contract. The retirees are still steaming over decreased health coverage and higher deductibles that came with the last contract.

 Given these factors, here's where I think the bargain will be struck. The UAW will settle for a very small base wage increase, maybe only 1%, for the tier 1 (older) workers. All of the employees will get a significant signing bonus, but it will be well less than 10%, and the signing bonus will vary depending on the automaker with Ford getting the highest Bonus and Chrysler workers getting the lowest bonus. The tier 2 workers will come out with the biggest gain, probably narrowing the wage gap by as much as a half by the end of the contract. Fringe benefits will be little changed overall, with a cut in one place being balanced by an increase somewhere else. The retirees will get basically nothing. Feel free to put your two cents in the comments.

Making the Most of My Last Weekend of Summer

This is the last real weekend of the summer for me. On Tuesday, my kids go back to school thanks to summer-hating grinches that run the school system. I'm looking at my list of things that I was going to get accomplished this summer. Actually, I never actually finished the list, but I did start it. I was going to get some things done this weekend, but I decided I'd watch two Youtube videos first. I think I might have picked the wrong videos.

Standard & Poors ****s America

Last week's stock market mini-crash wiped out all the gains we had made in our 401k plans for the year. Today, Standard & Poors downgraded the United States' credit rating due to inability to meaningfully address the budget deficit through the political process. The stock market has reacted by driving stocks down even further. In other words, S&P screwed you. Of course, this isn't the first time. Incompetence by S&P and the other credit rating companies was a big contributor to the financial meltdown that sucked so much wealth out of the economy and caused the Great Recession in the first place. Robert Kuttner lays into S&P in this Huffington Post editorial:

You have to hand it to Standard and Poor's. Forget their two-trillion dollar math error. The whole idea that these clowns are evaluating the creditworthiness of the United States is just loony.

For starters, these are the same people who brought us the crisis, by blessing junk sub-prime loans as AAA securities. And they did so because they were paid as consultants by the same financial scoundrels who created the securities.

The executives of the credit rating companies -- not "agencies," for these are private, profit-making, essentially unregulated companies, not public entities -- belong in prison.

Robert Kuttner was the keynote speaker in last year's National Consumer Rights Conference. This year the conference will be in Chicago on November 3-6. This is within driving range for over half of the UAWLSP staff attorneys. If you have the opportunity, you should make it a point to attend. I guarantee that you'll learn a lot.

The good news is that the Federal Reserve did not drink from S&P's fountain of Kool-aid and has held down the rates for long-term treasury bonds. If this keeps up, the rating downgrade's affect on the cost of credit for everyday loans might end up being minor or insignificant.

So you think YOU know how to Parallel Park?

Can you park between two cars with just 26cm clearance? (That's a little over 10 inches.) A German fellow named Ronny Wechselberger can do it and is now in the Guinness Book of World Records.



There are actually quite a few awesome parking videos on Youtube. Go ahead, waste your life.

From the Graphene file:
1 Box of Girl Scout Cookies = $15,000,000,000 worth of Graphene


Back in May, I posted that I thought graphene would be the "buzzword of the decade". Here's an example of why I still think that's true: a team of Rice University researchers did a demonstration experiment to see how much graphene they could extract from a single box of Girl Scout cookies. They calculated that, at current prices, they could extract $15 billion worth. That was a number they threw out with a wink and a nod. That's a theoretical quantity times today's market price. In reality when graphene can be practically extracted in such large quantities, the market price will be much, much lower.

Still, I expect that I'll be selling Girl Scout cookies for my daughter again this year, so if you want to be a billionaire, you better buy up.

Happy Birthday Mr. President

Barack Obama turns 50 today. If you count the extra wear and tear of the past week, it's more like 75. Here's a picture of young Barack at Harvard, channeling Marvin Gaye. (Obama picture time/life/getty images)

Your "halfway paying attention" News Brief:

Peyton Manning's Signing Clears Way for Congressional Debt Deal

I guess while I was busy doing other things, they were working hard in Washington to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling. The way I understand it, Peyton Manning agreed to a "cap-friendly" contract that cleared room for an independent committee to reach an agreement to agree to raise the debt ceiling and pretend to cut taxes without taxing the rich, and they also managed to sign Plaxico Burress to boot. Also, there was violence in the streets of Syria as Smurfs battered both cowboys and aliens. Busy day.

Encore Capital Class Action Settlement Isn't Going Through Like Buttah

Judge is Reviewing $5.7 Settlement For Fairness After AG's Object

Encore Capital, one of the biggest collection agencies in the US, is trying to settle a class action case relating to deceptive collection practices. They put $5.7 million on the table to do it. Of course, that's only about $10-$17 per class plaintiff. Among the allegations, Encore used fabricated (robosigned) affidavits to support their collection suits. That could be why the attorneys general of 38 states have filed objections to the fairness of the settlement. It certainly seems presumptively unfair to me.

source: http://www.collectionscreditrisk.com/news/judge-delays-encore-capital-settlement-ruling-3006945-1.html?ET=ccrisk:e6969:58299a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CCR_breakingnews_071211_071211

The Fastest Cars 25 Years Ago -

Porche 959 vs. the Ferrari F40

Twenty-five years ago, I was in law school. According to the normal course of thing, before long, I would be shopping for the most exotic car I could find using the riches from my new profession. Naturally, I had to have either a 959 or an F40, because those were the only cars within spitting distance of a 200 MPH top speed.

Top gear season 16 ep 6

No, I didn't really believe that even then.

Vince Gill Breaks the Country Jinx

I've been writing this blog for ten years or so, and I've never linked a country song. Finally a country song that meets my standards for quality and objectivity. Vince Gill, you're the first. Congratulations. I know it's important to you.

It's Hard To Kiss The Lips At Night That Chew Your Ass Out All Day Long Get new music videos and MTV show videos on Tr3s.com. www.tr3s.com More from Vince Gill Watch New Music Videos Watch New Music Videos | Music News
Embed