Happy 100th Birthday General Motors
I've got to say, you're looking at least average for a 100 year-old.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Gloom, Dispair and Agony on Me . . .
Financial Industry Woes Bode Ill for Auto Market
The implosion of many parts of the financial markets, from Fannie Mae to Lehman Brothers, bodes ill for any short term revival of the auto markets. It also means that GM, Ford and Chrysler will have to get in line at the financial aid troth in Washington. With just a few weeks before the Capitol shuts down for the fall elections and the birth of a new Congress, not to mention a new (Yeah!) president. I'd have to say the chances of any significant new loan package finding its way to Detroit are less than 1 in 10.
What a bummer, let's not think about it. Why don't you watch Hee Haw instead?
Financial Industry Woes Bode Ill for Auto Market
The implosion of many parts of the financial markets, from Fannie Mae to Lehman Brothers, bodes ill for any short term revival of the auto markets. It also means that GM, Ford and Chrysler will have to get in line at the financial aid troth in Washington. With just a few weeks before the Capitol shuts down for the fall elections and the birth of a new Congress, not to mention a new (Yeah!) president. I'd have to say the chances of any significant new loan package finding its way to Detroit are less than 1 in 10.
What a bummer, let's not think about it. Why don't you watch Hee Haw instead?
Monday, September 08, 2008
Another "C-Student" President?
George W. Bush is what you get when you "elect" a c-student as President of the United States. From "nuculer" to "strategery", to "My Pet Goat", to "You're doin' a heck of a job, Mikey", to waterboarding not being torture, we have found out that when you mix lack of curiosity with lack of empathy, you get a mess of a chief executive.
I mention this because the latest polls list McCain-Palin as being statistically even to slightly ahead of Obama-Biden. If the Republicans win, we're looking at another C-student President.
McCain was 894th out of 899 in his class at the Naval Academy. (John McCain also wrecked 4 aircraft prior to being captured. His captivity is probably the only thing that kept him from becoming a North Vietnamese ace.)
Sara Palin went to 5 colleges in 6 years before apparently graduating with a degree in communications from the University of Idaho.
In contrast, Barack Obama was elected head of Harvard Law Review, and Professor Lawrence Tribe called him "the best student I ever had." Does that mean that there's no chance in hell that he'll ever be President?
Chris Rock knows all about C-students - here's his take on the matter. Language NSFW
George W. Bush is what you get when you "elect" a c-student as President of the United States. From "nuculer" to "strategery", to "My Pet Goat", to "You're doin' a heck of a job, Mikey", to waterboarding not being torture, we have found out that when you mix lack of curiosity with lack of empathy, you get a mess of a chief executive.
I mention this because the latest polls list McCain-Palin as being statistically even to slightly ahead of Obama-Biden. If the Republicans win, we're looking at another C-student President.
McCain was 894th out of 899 in his class at the Naval Academy. (John McCain also wrecked 4 aircraft prior to being captured. His captivity is probably the only thing that kept him from becoming a North Vietnamese ace.)
Sara Palin went to 5 colleges in 6 years before apparently graduating with a degree in communications from the University of Idaho.
In contrast, Barack Obama was elected head of Harvard Law Review, and Professor Lawrence Tribe called him "the best student I ever had." Does that mean that there's no chance in hell that he'll ever be President?
Chris Rock knows all about C-students - here's his take on the matter. Language NSFW
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Who DOES Sarah Palin look like?
My first thought was Peggy Hill. An observant youtuber, Katavideo, noticed that not only does Palin look like Peggy Hill; McCain looks like Cotton. He's right.
TMZ has a gallery of several contenders.
More Sarah Palin in Video
Here's the video of Sarah Palin's welcome and good luck video greetings for the Alaska Independence party.
Yes, indeed, this party's basic premise is that Alaska should secede from the union. Governor Palin's husband was a member of the party until 2002. Whether Governor Palin was a member is a matter of controversy.
Finally, 80's hair & all, here's the VP-wannabe fresh out of college as a sportscaster.
Do I have a grudge against her? Well, kind of. She pronounces Purdue's arena "Mac-KAY" arena. Hey sister, it's Mack-ie arena, and don't forget it. How many astronauts went to the University of Idaho, anyway?
My first thought was Peggy Hill. An observant youtuber, Katavideo, noticed that not only does Palin look like Peggy Hill; McCain looks like Cotton. He's right.
TMZ has a gallery of several contenders.
More Sarah Palin in Video
Here's the video of Sarah Palin's welcome and good luck video greetings for the Alaska Independence party.
Yes, indeed, this party's basic premise is that Alaska should secede from the union. Governor Palin's husband was a member of the party until 2002. Whether Governor Palin was a member is a matter of controversy.
Finally, 80's hair & all, here's the VP-wannabe fresh out of college as a sportscaster.
Do I have a grudge against her? Well, kind of. She pronounces Purdue's arena "Mac-KAY" arena. Hey sister, it's Mack-ie arena, and don't forget it. How many astronauts went to the University of Idaho, anyway?
What's the deal with the Seinfeld/Gates Microsoft Commercial?
Microsoft hired Jerry Seinfeld to help the company get its edge back and to appeal to the young crowd.
In the commercial Seinfeld is walking through the mall eating a churro, and he runs into Bill Gates in a "Shoe Circus" store (aka Shoe Carnival, clever huh?) They babble incoherently and walk off into the sunset or something like that. What is striking is that in the Commercial, Bill Gates looks like the grandfather of Bill Gates the teenaged whiz kid, and Seinfeld is hip. Does it matter that Seinfeld is a year older than Gates? Seinfeld was born in 1954, and Gates in 1955. At age 54, Jerry Seinfeld is older than about 80% of the population of the United States.
Microsoft hired Jerry Seinfeld to help the company get its edge back and to appeal to the young crowd.
In the commercial Seinfeld is walking through the mall eating a churro, and he runs into Bill Gates in a "Shoe Circus" store (aka Shoe Carnival, clever huh?) They babble incoherently and walk off into the sunset or something like that. What is striking is that in the Commercial, Bill Gates looks like the grandfather of Bill Gates the teenaged whiz kid, and Seinfeld is hip. Does it matter that Seinfeld is a year older than Gates? Seinfeld was born in 1954, and Gates in 1955. At age 54, Jerry Seinfeld is older than about 80% of the population of the United States.
Friday, September 05, 2008
"Mr. Mortgage" and Rounds 2 and 3 of the Mortgage Crisis
I really don't know who Mr. Mortgage is, but he's somehow related to the Implode-o-meter website, a website that has been ahead of the curve on the mortgage mess for about 2 years now, and he sure writes a lot (and videopodcasts).
Here he throws some numbers around from Fitch suggesting the industry is due for a second round of mortgage defaults. The first round was largely due to subprime loans going bad. The second round will relate to Option ARM mortgages. (Option ARM loans, sometimes called "pick a payment" loans typically negatively amortize until the loans hit a negative amortization cap, then the loans recast to a payment high enought to pay off the loan on the original schedule. Mr. Mortgage says that the average pay-option buyer will face a mortgage payment INCREASE of $1,053 per month at recast. That's more than my entire mortgage payment. Wachovia Corp. has $122 billion invested in pay option mortgages. If they are already looking at 10%-24% default rate even before these loans hit their recast date, it doesn't take a genius to forcast default rates will double after the payments go up a grand a month.
Note the scope of the problem, Wachovia alone has over $100 billion in crappy ARM loans; and no doubt the taxpayers in some form will be asked to subsidize this bank's awful decisionmaking to the tune of 10s of billions of dollars. I find it hard to draw a moral distinction between bailing out their crappy loans and providing support to automakers (bad decisions & all), especially since the automakers drive the economies of the communities where they have located facilities.
By the way, Mr. Mortgage says ROUND 3 of the Mortgage crises will come from a(prime) jumbo loan implosion about 6 months after the option ARM mess peaks in a year or so. McCain & Obama, are you sure you want to be President?
I really don't know who Mr. Mortgage is, but he's somehow related to the Implode-o-meter website, a website that has been ahead of the curve on the mortgage mess for about 2 years now, and he sure writes a lot (and videopodcasts).
Here he throws some numbers around from Fitch suggesting the industry is due for a second round of mortgage defaults. The first round was largely due to subprime loans going bad. The second round will relate to Option ARM mortgages. (Option ARM loans, sometimes called "pick a payment" loans typically negatively amortize until the loans hit a negative amortization cap, then the loans recast to a payment high enought to pay off the loan on the original schedule. Mr. Mortgage says that the average pay-option buyer will face a mortgage payment INCREASE of $1,053 per month at recast. That's more than my entire mortgage payment. Wachovia Corp. has $122 billion invested in pay option mortgages. If they are already looking at 10%-24% default rate even before these loans hit their recast date, it doesn't take a genius to forcast default rates will double after the payments go up a grand a month.
Note the scope of the problem, Wachovia alone has over $100 billion in crappy ARM loans; and no doubt the taxpayers in some form will be asked to subsidize this bank's awful decisionmaking to the tune of 10s of billions of dollars. I find it hard to draw a moral distinction between bailing out their crappy loans and providing support to automakers (bad decisions & all), especially since the automakers drive the economies of the communities where they have located facilities.
By the way, Mr. Mortgage says ROUND 3 of the Mortgage crises will come from a(prime) jumbo loan implosion about 6 months after the option ARM mess peaks in a year or so. McCain & Obama, are you sure you want to be President?
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Two Celebrities Two Deaths One Cause
The web carried news of two celebrity deaths today. Singer Jerry Reed died of emphysema at age 71, and "the trailer guy", Don LaFontaine, died of a "lung-related illness" at age 68. LaFontaine attributed his illness to 30 years of on and off smoking. Jerry Reed had even made light of his smoking with the song "Another Puff".
The web carried news of two celebrity deaths today. Singer Jerry Reed died of emphysema at age 71, and "the trailer guy", Don LaFontaine, died of a "lung-related illness" at age 68. LaFontaine attributed his illness to 30 years of on and off smoking. Jerry Reed had even made light of his smoking with the song "Another Puff".
Where are the August Sales Numbers?
It's now September 3, the third business day of the month, and the auto industry sales numbers from August have not yet been posted. Perhaps everyone is waiting for Hurricane Hanna to blow its way up the East Coast on Friday and distract everyone from the bad news. Overall, August numbers are likely to be similar to the poor results from June and July. Bloomberg news is publishing analysts' estimates of sales. Overall, the analysts estimate that total industry sales increased to an annual rate of 13 million units per year in August, up from 12.6 million rate in July. The primary instigator of the sales increase was General Motors' Employee Pricing for All promotion. Today GM announced that it would extend the offer for another month and extend it to cover some 2009 models, primarily 2009 models that came out in the first half of 2008, such as the Pontiac Vibe and the Cadillac CTS. (It is discouraging to see high inventory models for these vehicles, especially the highly-regarded Cadillac CTS, because most of GM's fall 2009 models are essentially carry-over. There's nothing new to lead a sales surge.)
Even though GM's sales will be a little better than last month, the analysts predict that GM's sales will be 29% below last year. Chrysler's numbers will be about 34% below last year. Ford will report sales about 21% below 2007. In comparison, Toyota's sales dropped about 11%, and Honda's sales decreased 7.4%.
Speaking of Hurricane Hanna, this storm is on path to deliver a glancing blow to East Coast, from Florida's Gold Coast to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with tropical storm level winds extending up the coast all the way to Canada's Maritime Provences. If it takes this route, probably no community will see a disaster on the scale of Hurricane Katrina, but significan damage over a large area could make for huge insurance losses. Some of the insurance money would go to car owners replacing storm-damaged vehicles. No doubt there are some auto executives thinking 'Go Hanna, Go." To track Hanna and other storms, here's a link to the National Hurricane Center.
It's now September 3, the third business day of the month, and the auto industry sales numbers from August have not yet been posted. Perhaps everyone is waiting for Hurricane Hanna to blow its way up the East Coast on Friday and distract everyone from the bad news. Overall, August numbers are likely to be similar to the poor results from June and July. Bloomberg news is publishing analysts' estimates of sales. Overall, the analysts estimate that total industry sales increased to an annual rate of 13 million units per year in August, up from 12.6 million rate in July. The primary instigator of the sales increase was General Motors' Employee Pricing for All promotion. Today GM announced that it would extend the offer for another month and extend it to cover some 2009 models, primarily 2009 models that came out in the first half of 2008, such as the Pontiac Vibe and the Cadillac CTS. (It is discouraging to see high inventory models for these vehicles, especially the highly-regarded Cadillac CTS, because most of GM's fall 2009 models are essentially carry-over. There's nothing new to lead a sales surge.)
Even though GM's sales will be a little better than last month, the analysts predict that GM's sales will be 29% below last year. Chrysler's numbers will be about 34% below last year. Ford will report sales about 21% below 2007. In comparison, Toyota's sales dropped about 11%, and Honda's sales decreased 7.4%.
Speaking of Hurricane Hanna, this storm is on path to deliver a glancing blow to East Coast, from Florida's Gold Coast to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with tropical storm level winds extending up the coast all the way to Canada's Maritime Provences. If it takes this route, probably no community will see a disaster on the scale of Hurricane Katrina, but significan damage over a large area could make for huge insurance losses. Some of the insurance money would go to car owners replacing storm-damaged vehicles. No doubt there are some auto executives thinking 'Go Hanna, Go." To track Hanna and other storms, here's a link to the National Hurricane Center.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
