What are Lithium Phosphate Batteries?
Why should you care?

In recent parallel announcements, Toyota announced that it was postponing a planed 2009 introduction of a plug-in hybrid car from 2009 to 2011. At the same time, General Motors announced that it was on track to introduce a plug-in hybrid in 2009, with an advanced model by the end of 2010. The problem is that Toyota needs more time to develop the Lithium-ion batteries that make the car practical. It's possible that Toyota has bet on the wrong horse, scientifically speaking that is.

Toyota's batteries use a lithium-cobalt oxide technology similar to that used in laptop batteries. As you are probably aware, there have been a lot of recalls of laptop batteries due to fire and overheating. What is dangerous in a laptop is stunningly dangerous in a car that can travel 120 mph, and subject to being hit by other cars going 120 mph.

This is one area that General Motors may be one up on Toyota. General Motors, as showcased in its Chevy Volt showcar, is doing its best to sell a plug-in hybrid in the 2009-2010 timeframe. GM uses a different battery chemistry, a chemistry based on a Lithium-Phosphate mix. Lab tests have shown that lithium batteries using phosphate is much less prone to catching fire than batteries using cobalt.

General Motors' battery technology is from a company named A123. I have previously blogged about a similar technology by a company called Valance Technology. Valance seems to be falling a bit behind as far as I can tell, but any company could be just one patent away from a breakthrough.

There is one more variable in the mix: If any lithium technology is so much more expensive than the NiMH technology currently used in hybrid cars that the cost outweighs the marginal benefits, it's possible that no lithium batteries will be successful. Toyota still plans to introduce its next generation Prius hybrid for the 2009 model year, in late 2008 or early 2009.

Chryslerberus
The New Chrysler

After I read the nickname "Chryserberus" in more than one place, I wanted to see how common the new nickname for Chrysler has become. As of today, "Chryslerberus" returns 540 Google hits. Congratulations, the nickname sticks.

Chrysler to White Collar Workers:
Don't Leave Before we Fire You

The Detroit News is reporting that the new Chrysler management is strongly discouraging its white collar workers from interviewing with other Chrysler-related business such as Chrysler Financial and Daimler AG. (Thanks to Ken W.)

L.A. Times Review of Chrysler Sebring Convertible
Detroit News Review of Chrysler Minivans
What's wrong and Right at Chrysler

Pulitzer-prize winning automotive journalist Dan Neil, auto-reviewer for the Los Angeles Times, recently published a review of the new 2008 Chrysler Sebring Convertible. Did he like it? Here's a quote:

Not just bad, but a veritable chalice of wretchedness, a rattling, thumping, lolling tragedy of a car, a summary indictment of Chrysler's recent management and its self-eradicating product planning, all cast in plastic worthy of a Chinese water pistol. The Sebring drop top does something I thought impossible: It makes me long for the exquisite craftsmanship of the Pontiac flipping G6.

Oh, and the Sebring Convertible is homely, too.

If you want to know why Daimler bailed on Chrysler, essentially paying Cerberus to take over, you need to look no further than the
Chrysler Sebring and Dodge Avenger. These vehicles replaced Chrysler's long-in-the-tooth Dodge Stratus and previous generation Sebring, and because they were six years in the making, they should have been good. Instead, they were instantly the worst cars in the midsized segment, not even coming close to matching competiters' cars that were scheduled for near-term replacements. I test-drove a Sebring shortly after it came out last fall, and it induced me to sell my Daimler Chrysler stock immediately. The Sebring was not even close to being as good as the significantly cheaper Hyundai Sonata that shared the same engine and just happened to share the same dealer's lot.

If you look at what Dodge and Chrysler dealers have to sell, things don't look that encouraging. They have a lot of fuel-guzzling SUVs and trucks. Most don't sell anywhere near the volume of their leading competitors. As far as cars are concerned, they have the 300 and the Magnum, these cars have a personality and are competitive with their class. The Sebring and Avenger aren't competitive at all. The PT Cruiser had a niche, but now it's at the end of it's life cycle and won't be directly replaced. The Caliber is considered to be an also-ran in the compact CUV category. True small cars? They don't have any. There are vague stories about importing Chinese small cars. I'm sure that will go over really well in the Dodge heartland.

The minivans? If Chrysler has hope in the near term, those hopes rest on the long wheelbase of the new Dodge Grand Caravan and Chrysler Town and Country minivans that will debut in about a month. The first reviews are out, and they are generally positive. Here is the Detroit News review. The thing to remember is that Chrysler already had a commanding share of the minivan market, so to "turn around" the company, Chrysler will have to both take share away from strong import competitors and expand the market by taking business away from the encroaching 3-row crossover CUVs like the new Buick Enclave and the brand new Toyota Highlander. Here's something to consider when evaluating the potential for the Chrysler minivans to save the company. Only the top end minivans get a new engine and transmission, and that engine and transmission was not enough to ignite sales of the Chrysler Pacifica in 2007. (The Pacifica sales are down more than 20% in the year to date.) All of the models get more weight and length, exacerbating a slight performance deficit when compared to the competition. Only the top-of-the-line models get the new Swivel-N-Go reversible middle seat. The competitors aren't standing still. The new Honda Odyssey is about a year away, and the new Toyota Sienna is about two years away, less than halfway through a typical Chysler design cycle.

That leaves Jeep. You are either a Jeep person or not. I'm not a Jeep person. The Jeep line has been selling well. It's a profitable niche, but it's a finite market. It is what it is. What it isn't is enough to support a major independent automaker. Cerberus can unload Jeep and make a pretty penny. Cerberus can make money on its Chrysler buyout by selling Jeep (and maybe the minivans) and chucking the rest of the company. A lot of Chrysler stakeholders hope they don't.

Would $20/hour in Concessions Save the Detroit 3?

I'll save you the math, but Frank Williams, in an editorial at thetruthaboutcars.com website argues that even $20.00/hr in concessions from the UAW would not be sufficient to bail them out of their current financial mess. Actually, I lied. I'm not going to save you the math, at least not entirely. Williams figures that a $20.00 per hour concession will save GM $3.3 billion per year. He said that would barely pay for a 30-40 billion VEBA for retiree health care over a 10 year period. He also cites GM's current interest expense at $3.2 billion per year, its $80 billion in short term liabilities, and dwindling market share. He wonders where the income will come from to pay these liabilities.

Assuming his numbers are right, there are some factors it doesn't appear that he's considers, or at least he didn't go over. If GM has to borrow all of that money for the VEBA, then Williams could be dead-on or even understating the problem. If GM has already set aside some assets to cover future retiree medical costs (even if only partially), the effect could be mitigated. Regarding GM's other debt: yeah, it's high, but GM posted a nominal profit last quarter even with the high debt. It's true that GM is going to have to sell a bunch of cars to be successful in the long run, but that's true regardless of what numbers you use.

So let's do a little role-playing here. Let's say you're Ron G. and you're negotiating with General Motors. Let's say that you run the numbers, and you figure that even cutting pay and benefits $20.00 per hour, a figure that you're not convinced you can sell to the rank and file anyway, you still can't come up with numbers that make a GM comeback reasonably likely. What do you do? It seems to me that you hold firm for a "living" wage, with only minor cuts. You try to get another good year or two for the members before all hell breaks loose. The alternative is to cut your standard of living and leave that money on the table for the big wigs to gobble up until the end comes just about as quickly anyway.

Where does that leave us? Here's my prediction. If the UAW agrees to a contract with only mild cuts, fellow 3357 members, that's when you should worry; because that means that they're set to go down with the Titanic with the band playing. On the other hand, a contract with deep cuts means the UAW thinks they ship can be saved. They've left the deck, and they've gone below to work the bilge pumps. Of course, salvaging the ship could also mean casting off dead-weight off the top, and that dead weight could mean certain gold plated benefit plans.

Chrysler Has a New Name and New CEO

What was once a division of Daimler Chrysler AG, is now Chrysler LLC. Ex-Home-Depot CEO, Bob Nardelli, has been named the Chief Executive Officer at Chrysler, LLC. Mr. Nardelli is touted for his ability as a turnaround specialist. Some say that the only thing that he turned around was himself as he ran away from Home Depot, one step ahead of the door hitting him in the ass on the way out, after controversy brewed over a pay package that escalated faster than Home Depot's fortunes.

If Mr. Nardelli makes Chrysler anything like Home Depot, you can be sure that when you REALLY need a part at a Chrysler dealership, you'll never be able to find an employee to help you.

Youtube Video Of the Day:
Tacoma Narrows Bridge Collapse

Here's a link to a video that I first saw in high school Physics class almost 30 years ago. It's the Tacoma Narrows bridge collapse that occurred in 1940. Unlike the recent bridge collapse in Minneapolis, no one died or was even injured as the Tacoma Narrows suspension bridge danced for about an hour.

GM Earns almost $1 Billion in 2nd Quarter

GM's cost-cutting is starting to show on the bottom line, as the company reported its third consecutive quarter of positive earnings. The earnings for the 2nd fiscal quarter of 2007 were $891 million, as compared to a loss of $3.4 billion in the same quarter of last year.

GM's earnings were decreased by a $341 million bail-out of Delphi. Although some analysts expected GMAC to post a loss due to the subprime mortgage market, GMAC posted a $239 million profit, an amount roughly equal to 1/3 of last year's finance profits. GM sold off 51% of GMAC last year. The $239 million gain (apparently) represents GM's 49% share.


GM was profitable virtually everywhere but North America. Still, the North American loss, at $49 million, is fairly minor statistically.

GM's overall revenue shrank to about $47 billion, compared to $54 billion last year. GM's market share shrunk to a little under 23% in the North American market.

These results came in during the early stage of contract negotiations with the UAW. Ironically, a loss might have helped GM at the bargaining table. The fact that GM posted a narrow profit may help stave off the termination of legal services coverage for the remaining UAW members. Source: Detroit News

Nissan's Altima Coupe 2.5S
New Queen of the Secretarymobiles

Two-door Japanese 4-cylinder cars traditionally have the reputation as being "secretaries' cars." The owner demographics tend to be heavily-weighted to female ownership. Nissan just came out with a 2-door version of the Altima. As it so happens, Nissan is selling them faster than they can make them. My sister wants one, but I haven't been able to find one. Here's a Edmunds.com comparison sheet that I worked up comparing the Altima Coupe with the outgoing Honda Accord Coupe, Toyota Camry Solara, Mitsubishi Eclipse, and the only American model squarely in the segment, the Pontiac G6 Coupe. Actually, the G6 isn't squarely in the niche, because it's a 6-cylinder, but the price is similar to the others, so the G6 is cross-shopped. Quite frankly, even though the Pontiac's performance is similar to the other cars, it's fuel economy is not in the same league with EPA city rating of 18 MPG (under the 2007 ratings) vs. EPA 23 for the Nissan under the harsher 2008 standard. The big culprit in the drastic difference in fuel economy is the difference in transmissions. The Nissan has a top-of-its-class CVT automatic transmission, while the Pontiac has a standard (old) 4-speed automatic. In a family sedan comparison in the March 2007 issue of Consumer Reports Magazine, the 2007 Nissan Altima Sedan beat a bevy of newish family sedans including the Saturn Aura and the Pontiac G6 in both 4 and 6 cylinder forms. Nissan's CVT transmission allowed the 4-cylinder Altima to accellerate with the 3.5 liter 6-cylinder GM cars, but had much higher fuel economy. GM's 4-cylinder was still hamstrung by the General's ancient 4-speed automatic transmission. (By the way, in the March '07 comparison, the lowest rated cars were Chrysler's Sebring and the Dodge Avenger, cars that even Chrysler's own executives describe as "disappointing".

According to GM Car Czar Bob Lutz's Fastlane blog, the 2008 Altima will also debut with the 4-speed automatic, though a 6-speed auto will be available later. Though Lutz raves about the redesigned Malibu, it will have to go up against excellent cars like the Altima and Camry PLUS an as-yet-unveiled, redesigned, 2008 Honda Accord. Good luck with that Bob.

Measure your car's Weeeee! Factor with Wii Remote


Vwvortex.com has instructions on how to convert your wii remote into an accellerometer that can measure you5r car's accelleration and g-forces through a connection to a pc. It sounds like a fun hack.

If someone wants to buy me a Wii, I'll be happy to check it out.