Toyota Continues to Ride the Experience Curve for Hybrids
3rd Generation to be Cheaper, Lighter & Higher Performing by 2008
About the same time that GM & Chrysler get their first generation hybrids out, Toyota will be on its third. Toyota promises that their next generation system will be cheaper, lighter, and higher performing. Toyota expects to double its hybrid production, currently at 300,000 worldwide. Toyota also expects to produce components in the United States.
A good location for new hybrid production in the US would be the modern Subaru plant in Lafayette, Indiana. This is one of the assets that GM lost control of when it dumped its stake in Subaru earlier this year.
Of the US automakers, only Ford understood that unit sales of hybrids aren't about market share, it's about building a technology base that lets you ride the "cost curve" or "experience curve" whereby costs decline as a function of accumulated units produced. When you have a product that has a pronounced experience curve, once you have a lead, it is very hard for others to catch up.
Inside Line: Toyota Promises Cheaper Hybrid System by 2008 -
Auto Market Entering End of the Year "Dead Zone"
We are in the season where virtually nothing new will come out between now and early January 2006 when the Detroit Auto Show introductions will take place. Detroit will likely feature the 2007 Toyota Camry and the well-publicized full-size GM suvs. Look for some surprises in the early spring next year. I predict that either Toyota or Honda will announce a hybrid minivan. Speaking of Hybrids, look for Toyota to demo a version of the Prius with siginificantly higher performance. This Prius may or may not be available for sale.
Daimler Chrysler will awaken from its auto slumber. There will be more buzz over the Dodge Caliber, the controversial replacement for the neon. The replacement for the "sky cars" (Cirrus & Stratus) will be fleshed out. Don't be surprised if DC puts the 3.5 liter V-6 in the minivans with a new Kokomo-built 6-speed automatic transmission.
Thursday, November 17, 2005
Welcome to GM Vehicle Showroom
GM Marketing Failure Mode Strikes Again.
Last spring, I reported on how I received a test-drive offer on a Buick LaCrosse. I went to a Buick Dealer, and they didn't have enough dealer plates to handle the customers, and I and several others waited up to an hour only to leave without test-driving the car.
Today, I tried to get on the gmbuypower.com website to check what was available. (GM has a current offer giving employees $1000 bonus on midsized cars.) The link to refer the customer to the dealer internet representative isn't functioning.
Note to General Motors: Your marketing program is only as good as your weakest link.
Welcome to GM Vehicle Showroom
Last spring, I reported on how I received a test-drive offer on a Buick LaCrosse. I went to a Buick Dealer, and they didn't have enough dealer plates to handle the customers, and I and several others waited up to an hour only to leave without test-driving the car.
Today, I tried to get on the gmbuypower.com website to check what was available. (GM has a current offer giving employees $1000 bonus on midsized cars.) The link to refer the customer to the dealer internet representative isn't functioning.
Note to General Motors: Your marketing program is only as good as your weakest link.
Welcome to GM Vehicle Showroom
Agency Probes Chrysler and Dodge Minivans - New York Times
NHTSA Looks at DC Minivan Airbags
If you are the product manager for an automaker's minivans, what's the worst thing that can happen to you? High on the list might be bad press suggesting that the vans are unsafe.
That's exactly what Daimler Chrysler is getting. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is examining whether there are systematic defects in the front airbag sensors for Dodge and Chrysler minivans.
Agency Probes Chrysler and Dodge Minivans - New York Times
If you are the product manager for an automaker's minivans, what's the worst thing that can happen to you? High on the list might be bad press suggesting that the vans are unsafe.
That's exactly what Daimler Chrysler is getting. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is examining whether there are systematic defects in the front airbag sensors for Dodge and Chrysler minivans.
Agency Probes Chrysler and Dodge Minivans - New York Times
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
Black Friday 2005 - The OFFICIAL Site for the Hottest Day of the Year
bf2005.com: Your Guide to "Black Friday"
"Black Friday", the day after Thanksgiving, is the top shopping day of the year. The day that all the stores stay open ridiculous hours and hope to lure you in with sales that are too good to be true. Usually they are, the stores don't really have the items in stock, and if they do, they might have one or two of each. The site www.bf2005.com has gotten a lot of press for publishing in advance the sales items for the major stores. The stores' loss is your gain.
Here's a tip: Go to google.com and do a "site:" search for the item you want. For example: search on
"playstation 2" site:www.bf2005.com
this will yield all of the circulars that have playstation 2 units on sale.
Black Friday 2005 - The OFFICIAL Site for the Hottest Day of the Year
"Black Friday", the day after Thanksgiving, is the top shopping day of the year. The day that all the stores stay open ridiculous hours and hope to lure you in with sales that are too good to be true. Usually they are, the stores don't really have the items in stock, and if they do, they might have one or two of each. The site www.bf2005.com has gotten a lot of press for publishing in advance the sales items for the major stores. The stores' loss is your gain.
Here's a tip: Go to google.com and do a "site:" search for the item you want. For example: search on
"playstation 2" site:www.bf2005.com
this will yield all of the circulars that have playstation 2 units on sale.
Black Friday 2005 - The OFFICIAL Site for the Hottest Day of the Year
ABC News: Nightline
From the Kicking a Guy when He's down Department:
ABC NIGHTLINE Story "The Price of Joining the Club"
Last night ABC's Nightline program concerned a controversy over GM's Minority Dealer program. It was one step shy of a hatchet-job.
The program admitted that GM has more minority-owned dealerships than any other automaker (by far) and has actively sought minorities and sponsored them in acquiring dealerships. GM was taken to task by the high failure rate for those dealerships.
Really though, is it surprising given GM's overall problems that its newest, least capitalized dealerships would have the most problems?
What am I doing, defending General Motors? Yes, as a matter of fact. I think back to that line in Animal House. "They can't do that to our pledges. Only we can do that to our pledges."
ABC News: Nightline
ABC NIGHTLINE Story "The Price of Joining the Club"
Last night ABC's Nightline program concerned a controversy over GM's Minority Dealer program. It was one step shy of a hatchet-job.
The program admitted that GM has more minority-owned dealerships than any other automaker (by far) and has actively sought minorities and sponsored them in acquiring dealerships. GM was taken to task by the high failure rate for those dealerships.
Really though, is it surprising given GM's overall problems that its newest, least capitalized dealerships would have the most problems?
What am I doing, defending General Motors? Yes, as a matter of fact. I think back to that line in Animal House. "They can't do that to our pledges. Only we can do that to our pledges."
ABC News: Nightline
Hof's Car of the Year Preditions
Hof's Predictions for Car of the Year
Here are my picks for the 2006 Car of the Year Finalists. I generally disregard the high-end name-plates, because when the articles come out about cars made of unobtanium, I just don't see relevance to my life. As you can see, I'll make an exception for the Corvette.
2006 Chevrolet Corvette
2006 Ford Fusion/Mercury Milan/Lincoln Zephyr
2006 Hyundai Sonata
2006 Chevrolet Impala
2006 Toyota Avalon
2006 Honda Civic
2006 Volkswagen Passat
2006 Mazda MX-5 (a/k/a Miata)
2006 Pontiac Solstice
2006 Buick Lucerne
Now, here's my pick for the car that will win the most awards this year: 2006 Hyundai Sonata. The main reasons are the large improvement over the old model, the debut of two new engine families along with the car, and with the comprehensive safety equipment available even on the base model.
The first runner-up would be the Toyota Avalon. Second runner-up is the Ford Fusion/Mercury Milan/Lincoln Zephyr. Which one would I pick personallY? Any one that they'd give me for free.
Here are my picks for the 2006 Car of the Year Finalists. I generally disregard the high-end name-plates, because when the articles come out about cars made of unobtanium, I just don't see relevance to my life. As you can see, I'll make an exception for the Corvette.
2006 Chevrolet Corvette
2006 Ford Fusion/Mercury Milan/Lincoln Zephyr
2006 Hyundai Sonata
2006 Chevrolet Impala
2006 Toyota Avalon
2006 Honda Civic
2006 Volkswagen Passat
2006 Mazda MX-5 (a/k/a Miata)
2006 Pontiac Solstice
2006 Buick Lucerne
Now, here's my pick for the car that will win the most awards this year: 2006 Hyundai Sonata. The main reasons are the large improvement over the old model, the debut of two new engine families along with the car, and with the comprehensive safety equipment available even on the base model.
The first runner-up would be the Toyota Avalon. Second runner-up is the Ford Fusion/Mercury Milan/Lincoln Zephyr. Which one would I pick personallY? Any one that they'd give me for free.
Salon.com | News Wires
Bush in Asia: Mongolia or Bust
At the start of his "whirlwind" Asia trip, right before going to China, GWB gives a speech in Japan holding Taiwan out as a role model for China. That's diplomacy for ya.
Later he's going to Mongolia. Why Mongolia? The only thing that I can think of is that he and Donnie R. have run out of torture ideas, and they need to search the presidential library of Ghengis Khan.
Salon.com | News Wires
Perhaps he's read my updates of the Mongolian Entertainment scene.
Mongolian Entertainment Oct. 2003
Mongolian Entertainment May 2005
At the start of his "whirlwind" Asia trip, right before going to China, GWB gives a speech in Japan holding Taiwan out as a role model for China. That's diplomacy for ya.
Later he's going to Mongolia. Why Mongolia? The only thing that I can think of is that he and Donnie R. have run out of torture ideas, and they need to search the presidential library of Ghengis Khan.
Salon.com | News Wires
Perhaps he's read my updates of the Mongolian Entertainment scene.
Mongolian Entertainment Oct. 2003
Mongolian Entertainment May 2005
Tuesday, November 15, 2005
Five Reasons GM Won't Declare Bankruptcy - Forbes.com
From Forbes.com: 5 Reasons GM Won't Declare Bankruptcy
Don't put too much stake in reason #1, GM's $20 Billion in Cash. The Delphi bankruptcy alone might cost GM more than half of that, especially if there is a Delphi strike. As for the rest: slow sales and lowered credit ratings can eat the rest up in a hurry.
The other reasons are more interesting, and in my mind, more persuasive.
Five Reasons GM Won't Declare Bankruptcy - Forbes.com
Don't put too much stake in reason #1, GM's $20 Billion in Cash. The Delphi bankruptcy alone might cost GM more than half of that, especially if there is a Delphi strike. As for the rest: slow sales and lowered credit ratings can eat the rest up in a hurry.
The other reasons are more interesting, and in my mind, more persuasive.
Five Reasons GM Won't Declare Bankruptcy - Forbes.com
Bloomberg.com: News & Commentary
How the Money People are Betting on GM Bankruptcy
Derivatives . . . Options . . .
The annual cost of insuring $10 million of GM debt for five years with credit-default swaps rose to $2 million upfront plus $500,000 a year, compared with an annual premium of about $1 million early last week, traders said. The debt-insurance contracts changed hands at about $260,000 at the start of the year.
Thanks to Steve B. for this link.
Bloomberg.com: News & Commentary
Derivatives . . . Options . . .
The annual cost of insuring $10 million of GM debt for five years with credit-default swaps rose to $2 million upfront plus $500,000 a year, compared with an annual premium of about $1 million early last week, traders said. The debt-insurance contracts changed hands at about $260,000 at the start of the year.
Thanks to Steve B. for this link.
Bloomberg.com: News & Commentary
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